📄️ Context and Motivation
I first entered the crypto market in late 2020, driven by a fascination with this nascent asset class and its corresponding opportunities, bringing a new incremental technology that Blokchains represent. Unlike established markets, cryptoassets present a unique combination of innovation, unpredictability and volatility, reflecting the characteristics of an emerging market. These include high volatility, rapid technological evolution, and an ecosystem often influenced by sentiment-driven behavior, and the other way around.
📄️ Concerns and Objectives
The main concern isn’t about accurary of the current model, it’s about how long this model will be accurate enough. As evoked earlier, historical Bitcoin patterns’ cycles are very similar in terms duration and very different at the same time, especially in terms of expansion which tends to be logarithmic. This affects a lot the model as some independent variables I’ll use will show less extreme values through time.